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Bitcoin Price Chart from 2016 (Bitcoin for Dummies) - I love looking back at this from time to time and thinking about how everyone was wondering if it'd ever eclipse $1,000 again after doing so toward the end of 2013. (x-post from /r/Cryptocurrency)
Are you or ? RSI on BTC day chart is at its lowest since 2016 indicating price is likely to go up. BTC has tested 6k support line a few times and bounced back. Will it do this again? While Hodling has worked for many traders, the key to make money is BTFD. Who is buying in this dip? /r/Bitcoin
You've probably been hearing a lot about Bitcoin recently and are wondering what's the big deal? Most of your questions should be answered by the resources below but if you have additional questions feel free to ask them in the comments. It all started with the release of the release of Satoshi Nakamoto's whitepaper however that will probably go over the head of most readers so we recommend the following videos for a good starting point for understanding how bitcoin works and a little about its long term potential:
Limited Supply - There will only ever be 21,000,000 bitcoins created and they are issued in a predictable fashion, you can view the inflation schedule here. Once they are all issued Bitcoin will be truly deflationary. The halving countdown can be found here.
Open source - Bitcoin code is fully auditable. You can read the source code yourself here.
Accountable - The public ledger is transparent, all transactions are seen by everyone.
Decentralized - Bitcoin is globally distributed across thousands of nodes with no single point of failure and as such can't be shut down similar to how Bittorrent works. You can even run a node on a Raspberry Pi.
Censorship resistant - No one can prevent you from interacting with the bitcoin network and no one can censor, alter or block transactions that they disagree with, see Operation Chokepoint.
Push system - There are no chargebacks in bitcoin because only the person who owns the address where the bitcoins reside has the authority to move them.
Low fee scaling - On chain transaction fees depend on network demand and how much priority you wish to assign to the transaction. Most wallets calculate on chain fees automatically but you can view current fees here and mempool activity here. On chain fees may rise occasionally due to network demand, however instant micropayments that do not require confirmations are happening via the Lightning Network, a second layer scaling solution currently rolling out on the Bitcoin mainnet.
Borderless - No country can stop it from going in/out, even in areas currently unserved by traditional banking as the ledger is globally distributed.
Portable - Bitcoins are digital so they are easier to move than cash or gold. They can even be transported by simply memorizing a string of words for wallet recovery (while cool this method is generally not recommended due to potential for insecure key generation by inexperienced users. Hardware wallets are the preferred method for new users due to ease of use and additional security).
Bitcoin.org and BuyBitcoinWorldwide.com are helpful sites for beginners. You can buy or sell any amount of bitcoin (even just a few dollars worth) and there are several easy methods to purchase bitcoin with cash, credit card or bank transfer. Some of the more popular resources are below, also check out the bitcoinity exchange resources for a larger list of options for purchases.
Here is a listing of local ATMs. If you would like your paycheck automatically converted to bitcoin use Bitwage. Note: Bitcoins are valued at whatever market price people are willing to pay for them in balancing act of supply vs demand. Unlike traditional markets, bitcoin markets operate 24 hours per day, 365 days per year. Preev is a useful site that that shows how much various denominations of bitcoin are worth in different currencies. Alternatively you can just Google "1 bitcoin in (your local currency)".
Securing your bitcoins
With bitcoin you can "Be your own bank" and personally secure your bitcoins OR you can use third party companies aka "Bitcoin banks" which will hold the bitcoins for you.
If you prefer to "Be your own bank" and have direct control over your coins without having to use a trusted third party, then you will need to create your own wallet and keep it secure. If you want easy and secure storage without having to learn computer security best practices, then a hardware wallet such as the Trezor, Ledger or ColdCard is recommended. Alternatively there are many software wallet options to choose from here depending on your use case.
If you prefer to let third party "Bitcoin banks" manage your coins, try Gemini but be aware you may not be in control of your private keys in which case you would have to ask permission to access your funds and be exposed to third party risk.
Note: For increased security, use Two Factor Authentication (2FA) everywhere it is offered, including email! 2FA requires a second confirmation code to access your account making it much harder for thieves to gain access. Google Authenticator and Authy are the two most popular 2FA services, download links are below. Make sure you create backups of your 2FA codes.
As mentioned above, Bitcoin is decentralized, which by definition means there is no official website or Twitter handle or spokesperson or CEO. However, all money attracts thieves. This combination unfortunately results in scammers running official sounding names or pretending to be an authority on YouTube or social media. Many scammers throughout the years have claimed to be the inventor of Bitcoin. Websites like bitcoin(dot)com and the btc subreddit are active scams. Almost all altcoins (shitcoins) are marketed heavily with big promises but are really just designed to separate you from your bitcoin. So be careful: any resource, including all linked in this document, may in the future turn evil. Don't trust, verify. Also as they say in our community "Not your keys, not your coins".
Where can I spend bitcoins?
Check out spendabit or bitcoin directory for millions of merchant options. Also you can spend bitcoin anywhere visa is accepted with bitcoin debit cards such as the CashApp card. Some other useful site are listed below.
Mining bitcoins can be a fun learning experience, but be aware that you will most likely operate at a loss. Newcomers are often advised to stay away from mining unless they are only interested in it as a hobby similar to folding at home. If you want to learn more about mining you can read more here. Still have mining questions? The crew at /BitcoinMining would be happy to help you out. If you want to contribute to the bitcoin network by hosting the blockchain and propagating transactions you can run a full node using this setup guide. If you would prefer to keep it simple there are several good options. You can view the global node distribution here.
Just like any other form of money, you can also earn bitcoins by being paid to do a job.
You can also earn bitcoins by participating as a market maker on JoinMarket by allowing users to perform CoinJoin transactions with your bitcoins for a small fee (requires you to already have some bitcoins.
The following is a short list of ongoing projects that might be worth taking a look at if you are interested in current development in the bitcoin space.
One Bitcoin is quite large (hundreds of £/$/€) so people often deal in smaller units. The most common subunits are listed below:
one bitcoin is equal to 100 million satoshis
1,000 per bitcoin
used as default unit in recent Electrum wallet releases
1,000,000 per bitcoin
colloquial "slang" term for microbitcoin (μBTC)
100,000,000 per bitcoin
smallest unit in bitcoin, named after the inventor
For example, assuming an arbitrary exchange rate of $10000 for one Bitcoin, a $10 meal would equal:
For more information check out the Bitcoin units wiki. Still have questions? Feel free to ask in the comments below or stick around for our weekly Mentor Monday thread. If you decide to post a question in /Bitcoin, please use the search bar to see if it has been answered before, and remember to follow the community rules outlined on the sidebar to receive a better response. The mods are busy helping manage our community so please do not message them unless you notice problems with the functionality of the subreddit. Note: This is a community created FAQ. If you notice anything missing from the FAQ or that requires clarification you can edit it here and it will be included in the next revision pending approval. Welcome to the Bitcoin community and the new decentralized economy!
Some Bitcoin Analysts and Prediction Today and Yesterday & Why "It's not the Price, Dummy"
This is just for fun, I generally have no strong feelings toward bitcoin price (I'm just fundamentally against zero-sum get rich schemes). But today I decided to do a little bitcoin search in news.google.com and see what today's bulls were predicting in 2018. Side note, almost all of the news articles came from crypto sites. I tried my best to stay away from them. Farming magazine telling you agriculture is the future isn't exactly shocking. To people who invest, please don't consider this as a prediction that price will fall. I'm not astute or smart enough to predict either way. The only possible use is to make sure you are more skeptic regarding predictions. Keep in mind, a rich CEO or consultant can lose 100 million and not really affect his life that much, but a 10k or 100k lose for some people can be devastating. And remember, some of these rich hedge managers don't believe their own bullshit, and hopefully, some of these quotes will emulate that. (Note, I won't waste time linking them all, but by quoting them directly, it should be easy to google) (another side note, I didn't purposely search out specific names. I went by the first names I came across, and only ignoring those that I couldn't find anything regarding crypto in past years)
Present: Business Inside: Bitcoin is like 'digital gold' and won't be used the same as a traditional currency in at least 5 years, billionaire investor Mike Novogratz says Past: On Nov, 2017, he said: "Bitcoin could ‘easily’ reach $40,000 by the end of 2018, hedge fund legend Novogratz says" 2018: "Michael Novogratz calls a bottom in cryptocurrencies" (it wasn't) Novogratz started a crypto funding in 2018. First 9 months "Mike Novogratz’s Crypto Trading Desk Lost $136 Million in Nine Months" (Bloomberg). Quarter 4: "Galaxy Digital Posts $32.9 Million in Net Loss for Q4 2019". Feb 2020 "Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital Slashes 15% Staff"
Present: "For Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision, the bullish atmosphere had been reinforced, and further gains were more likely than ever. “There are literally only two resistances left on the #bitcoin chart - 14,000 and then the old all-time high at 20,000,” he tweeted." In a tweet today, he said, "Bitcoin is eating the world... It has become a supermassive black hole that is sucking in everything around it and destroying it. This narrative is only going to grow over the next 18 months. You see, gold is breaking down versus bitcoin...and gold investors will flip to BTC" Past: 2014: "Put them in the same kind of equation we get a value of bitcoin and that value is a million dollars. Now, you'll never hear an analyst say this—but I don't mind this—I could be wrong by 90%, and it's still worth $100,000." (to be honest, that's a bit of an impressive prediction in 2014) On the other hand, he probably didn't really believe his own prediction because in June, 2017 (when it was 2000 USD or so), he said: " “This is the most exponential move we have seen. I don’t know how far it goes, but I sold out last week… and I’ve [owned Bitcoin] since it was $200. Anything that moves exponentially, always [blows up].”" In 2016, "This view brings Pal to the asset he favors most over the next year out of bonds, equities, currencies and commodities: the dollar."
Eh, that was just two. I was hoping to mention several people, but it appears not many people are actually making predictions anymore, and anyone mentioned are basically not big people so I couldn't find much on them regarding bitcoin before 2019. So, the main thing I like to highlight are the analysts and such are going to make money whatever happens. Fund managers are playing with people's money and, as long as they are not involved in frauds, there is no real harm to them against wrong predictions. Generally, successful business people are successful because they were loud, confident, and were able to convince others that they had the right idea. Even when wrong, they bounce back. Most of us aren't like that. Some bitcoiners come here to boast when price goes up, as if the increase in price is an indication that argument against bitcoin has been proven wrong. While some people here are fanatically anti-bitcoin, I am not one of those. I have nothing against people making money (why would I be upset that people I don't know around the world became wealthier??). But since bitcoin investing is by design a zero sum game, certain people will eventually lose, and it is most likely it is the people who were listening to predictions by experts that would ultimately be financially hurt, and not the experts making the predictions. Crypto investing has been a platform where the average person works hard in his day to day life, and then brings the fruits of his labor into this field. The actual productive part of that person's life is the one outside crypto, where they had been productive for the community, and in exchange, they receive wages. Crypto investing's promise is for this wage to increase without the actual productivity. The concern is mainly that the result of all that labor will be misused by crypto "experts" who's own income (their labor) is directly linked to predictions on crypto. The above paragraph is badly explained, but the main point is that the average person brings in outside money they worked hard for, while "experts" there is generally no outside money, crypto fund management or consulting itself is their job. --- Money can be made, of course, but money being made isn't necessarily an argument for something. Bitcoin, and crypto, has for the past 1.5 decades still largely just about numbers going up. Google trend on "bitcoin" show top related queries being "bitcoin price", "bitcoin usd", "bitcoin usd price". When people come here when it hits a particular arbitrary price point thinking it's their gotcha moment, it actually just reinforces my argument that it is only about the price. Nothing in the history of human economy has ever lasted based only on the economic model of who you could resell it for at a higher price. Even DeFi's smart contracts (as much as I could understand it) is about prices going up. It's like for these people the concept of contracts are based purely on money exchanging hands, and no actual task being done. Almost all contracts globally are based on specific productive tasks being done, such as employee contract, supplier contract, property contract, and so on. Only a tiny amount of it is based on "if this currency goes up, then give me that currency" contracts. ---
Two data points. Bitcoin price 6 months post-2016 halving vs. Bitcoin price 6 months post-2020 halving.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, please do your own research.
Graph 1: 2016 post-BTC-halving price performance graph Graph 2: 2020 post-BTC-halving price Performance graph Disclaimer 2: These are two imperfect data points, you could even argue and say "cherry picked" data (since we are not technically six months post-halving for Bitcoin yet, that day comes on november 11th). I just thought it would be fun to discuss this as I took two random screenshots of bitcoin's price performance on coingecko. Graph 1 highlights: Day 1 price: $638.32 BTC. Lowest price on that graph: $517.13 BTC. Highest price on that graph: $1130.85. Final price on the graph: $894.03. (roughly 40% increase) Graph 2 highlights: Day 1 price: $8752.62 BTC. Highest price: today's price. Lowest price: $8604.75 (May 12th 2020) Today's price: $13,106.05 (roughly 49.75% increase). "History doesn't repeat itself, but the charts do rhyme."
A Physicist's Bitcoin Trading Strategy. No leverage, no going short, just spot trading. Total cumulative outperformance 2011-2020: 13,000,000%.
https://www.tradingview.com/script/4J5psNDo-A-Physicist-s-Bitcoin-Trading-Strategy/ 3. Backtest Results Backtest results demonstrate significant outperformance over buy-and-hold . The default parameters of the strategy/indicator have been set by the author to achieve maximum (or, close to maximum) outperformance on backtests executed on the BTCUSD ( Bitcoin ) chart. However, significant outperformance over buy-and-hold is still easily achievable using non-default parameters. Basically, as long as the parameters are set to adequately capture the full character of the market, significant outperformance on backtests is achievable and is quite easy. In fact, after some experimentation, it seems as if underperformance hardly achievable and requires deliberately setting the parameters illogically (e.g. setting one parameter of the slow indicator faster than the fast indicator). In the interest of providing a quality product to the user, suggestions and guidelines for parameter settings are provided in section (6). Finally, some metrics of the strategy's outperformance on the BTCUSD chart are listed below, both for the default (optimal) parameters as well as for a random sample of parameter settings that adhere to the guidelines set forth in section (6). Using the default parameters, relative to buy-and-hold strategy, backtested from August 2011 to August 2020,
Total cumulative outperformance (total return of strategy minus total return of buy-n-hold): 13,000,000%.
Rolling 1-year outperformance: mean 318%, median 84%, 1st quartile 55%, 3rd quartile, 430%.
Rolling 1-month outperformance: mean 2.8% (annualized, 39%), median -2.1%, 1st quartile -7.7%, 3rd quartile 13.2%, 10th percentile -13.9%, 90th percentile 24.5%.
Using the default parameters, relative to buy-and-hold strategy, during specific periods,
Cumulative outperformance during the past year (August 2019-August 2020): 37%.
12/17/2016 - 12/17/2017 (2017 bull market) absolute performance of 2563% vs buy-n-hold absolute performance of 2385%
11/29/2012 - 11/29/2013 (2013 bull market) absolute performance of 14033% vs buy-n-hold absolute performance of 9247%
Using a random sample (n=20) of combinations of parameter settings that adhere to the guidelines outlined in section (6), relative to buy-and-hold strategy, backtested from August 2011 to August 2020,
Average total cumulative outperformance, from August 2011 to August 2020: 2,000,000%.
Median total cumulative outperformance, from August 2011 to August 2020: 1,000,000%.
EDIT (because apparently not everybody bothers to read the strategy's description): 7. General Remarks About the Indicator Other than some exponential moving averages, no traditional technical indicators or technical analysis tools are employed in this strategy. No MACD , no RSI , no CMF , no Bollinger bands , parabolic SARs, Ichimoku clouds , hoosawatsits, XYZs, ABCs, whatarethese. No tea leaves can be found in this strategy, only mathematics. It is in the nature of the underlying math formula, from which the indicator is produced, to quickly identify trend changes. 8. Remarks About Expectations of Future Results and About Backtesting 8.1. In General As it's been stated in many prospectuses and marketing literature, "past performance is no guarantee of future results." Backtest results are retrospective, and hindsight is 20/20. Therefore, no guarantee can, nor should, be expressed by me or anybody else who is selling a financial product (unless you have a money printer, like the Federal Reserve does). 8.2. Regarding This Strategy No guarantee of future results using this strategy is expressed by the author, not now nor at any time in the future. With that written, the author is free to express his own expectations and opinions based on his intimate knowledge of how the indicator works, and the author will take that liberty by writing the following: As described in section (7), this trading strategy does not include any traditional technical indicators or TA tools (other than smoothing EMAs). Instead, this strategy is based on a principle that does not change, it employs a complex indicator that is based on a math formula that does not change, and it places trades based on five simple rules that do not change. And, as described in section (2.1), the indicator is designed to capture the full character of the market, from a macro/global scope down to a micro/local scope. Additionally, as described in section (3), outperformance of the market for which this strategy was intended during backtesting does not depend on luckily setting the parameters "just right." In fact, all random combinations of parameter settings that followed the guidelines outperformed the intended market in backtests. Additionally, no parameters are included within the underlying math formula from which the indicator is produced; it is not as if the formula contains a "5" and future outperformance would depend on that "5" being a "6" instead. And, again as described, it is in the nature of the formula to quickly identify trend changes. Therefore, it is the opinion of the author that the outperformance of this strategy in backtesting is directly attributable to the fundamental nature of the math formula from which the indicator is produced. As such, it is also the opinion of the author that continued outperformance by using this strategy, applied to the crypto ( Bitcoin ) market, is likely, given that the parameter settings are set reasonably and in accordance with the guidelines. The author does not, however, expect future outperformance of this strategy to match or exceed the outperformance observed in backtests using the default parameters, i.e. it probably won't outperform by anything close to 13,000,000% during the next 9 years. Additionally, based on the rolling 1-month outperformance data listed in section (3), expectations of short-term outperformance should be kept low; the median 1-month outperformance was -2%, so it's basically a 50/50 chance that any significant outperformance is seen in any given month. The true strength of this strategy is to be out of the market during large, sharp declines and capitalizing on the opportunities presented at the bottom of those declines by buying the dip. Given that such price action does not happen every month, outperformance in the initial months of use is approximately as likely as underperformance.
I keep hearing "Deflation before massive inflation"
So what can we do about it? Any ideas are welcome. It has a lot of "what if's"... It depends how tax and law play out with it.Historically speaking:
Commodities and things people use every day become expensive,
Luxury goods fall in value.
Inflation wipes out all savings, there is often a rush to spend money while it has value. "Bank runs" and "Bank Bail in's" where the bank will limit your withdraws to prop up the bank temporarily. Sure here the FDIC may insure it, but its nothing if your money is losing value by the hour and it takes months to get it actually into your hands. And many countries have issues with a person holding cash..."You're automatically a drug dealer! >your money is now drug money! >Asset forfeiture" ...I cant count how many times this happens.
People yell " physical gold and silver!" ... yeah, those do hold value well, however the gov does tax that at 26-30% when sold, and will often ban its use in dire times. ....huge grey / pirate area.
Mining stock is the same in the tax range, and nearly anything you "resell", imposed taxes and royalties can be added leaving you high and dry.
Precious metal holdings have been banned in the past, even here in the USA...aka Government confiscation.
Nationalization of Precious metals mines have happened.
Edit: I now realize there are many ways stocks can play out.
Real Estate will raise in value hugely, However so will the taxes, longer contracts at fixed rates benefits the lendee.
Things that you use, if you can stock or invest in it.
-I stock bulk diesel for my cars while following historical averages to buy cheap.
-Rotating food stock
-Extra maintenance items, including the big things like a roof on your home if its coming time. Not joking I have a spare water heater and backup heating options, along with minor parts and filters to fix them. Same with cars and engines, (spark plugs, filters (all different filters), oil, cheap sensors that usually go bad and are only 4-10$ each, 1-2 extra alternator per vehicle, belts, mowing belts, bearings, grease, ... and I've literally had to use everything on that list and reorder.)
Things that directly pay you back or are insurance. Saving money is making money.
-Security, Locks, Alarms, Cameras, people steal.
A deep freezer for instance can stock food you use and buy on sale.
Solar energy and solar heating supplements energy you use anyways
Rainwater can be collected and used rather than buying from a source.
A cooking gadget vs eating out.
Tools and learning to fix things vs hire.
House insulation.-Better insulative windows, and sealing.
Bidet on toilet (lol serious though...)
Your education can be a huge one, not just for prepping but also in your work.
Things that prevent rot, fire, flood / humidity, or failure. Humidity is a silent killer to many preps. (water sump pumps, dehumidifiers, leak prevention, fire extinguishers / sprinklers, )
Things that last and can be resold on the street if need be. This list can be huge, you have to balance it with liquidity, what you use but can also sell before it goes bad / fails.
Honestly and unpopularly, Things that can avoid tax when the price inflates out of control and you wish to sell. The numbers can be so distorted in both price and taxing of income. Eggs for instance, in many countries from Weimar Republic of Germany to Venezuela, increased 15,000%+, So that $15,000 egg / $150,000 dozen that you sold from your chickens gets taxed in the highest tax bracket? (which can go into the 90% range if rules aren't changed for the massive inflation) Taxes usually try raising during this and many companies flee the country, add robots / machines, or downsize as the result of more taxes making work and jobs even more of an issue. .. honestly history shows the whole thing being a cluster-duck in so many ways. Alternative currencies pop up, actual trades happen and go unreported, crime even shifts when things get too bad, again with Venezuela, I read that criminals were moving to other countries because the people were too poor to even make anything robbing! You can also have a business where you write off so many things that you would use anyways. The numbers get... err... odd, play the game.
It is usually around 10 years of chaos before things start "stabilizing." and even then, so much damage has occured.
This is a serious thing that has happened to once prosperous people / civilizations in the past...don't think you're exempt, especially when the numbers are at historical limits in many countries. Invest in yourself and what you use regularly.
An Eventful Year for Bitcoin and the Global Economy
https://preview.redd.it/zq5gmq198eu51.png?width=1196&format=png&auto=webp&s=f5907ffb5747afeb19e3d8091b89029b2f67496c Source: CoinGecko, Bitcoin Price Chart from January 1, 2020 to September 29, 2020 2020 was undoubtfully an eventful year, due to the aftermath of COVID-19, for the global economy. Bitcoin, also known as "Digital Gold", was also unable to avoid the impact of the pandemic. Earlier this year, Bitcoin was moving sideways from the 8,000 to 9,000 US dollar levels, but when the global stock market plunged around the end of March, it fell to around 4,000 USD in a very short period of time. Many economists were pessimistic about the prompt recovery of the global economy based on past experience of the subprime financial crisis and the worsening of the COVID-19 situation. Nevertheless, thanks to the emergency stimulus policies from many countries, the global stock market rose up again very quickly and showed record-breaking high points every day as if nothing happened. Bitcoin also broke through the 10,000 USD line in August this year, rising to the point close to 12,200 USD. In the course of Bitcoin's rise, the fluctuation of Bitcoin moves almost like the fluctuation of the U.S. stock market, showing a perfect coupling with the U.S. stock market.
How Will The US Election Impact The Fate of NASDAQ and Bitcoin?
https://preview.redd.it/8llk5sw98eu51.png?width=592&format=png&auto=webp&s=01ecaa5284c8b8995cc2ebcf9ea8b5b8248feeb7 Source: Investing.com, NASDAQ chart before and after the US Election on Nov 6, 2012 The US presidential election is scheduled for November 3, 2020. Financial and cryptocurrency traders around the world paying close attention to this election, and we know why by checking the chart above which shows NASDAQ prices before and after the past presidential election. At the time of the US presidential election on November 6, 2012, the NASDAQ was moving sideways around the 3,000 USD level, but it showed a steep rise right after the election, breaking the 4,000 USD level the following year, showing tremendous upside. The NASDAQ flow chart at the time of the US election on November 8, 2016, is similar. NASDAQ, which was about 5,400 USD during the 2016 election, showed a rise, breaking the 6,000 USD mark the following year after the election. Because of this, financial and cryptocurrency traders around the world have keen eyes for this year's US election, and the majority of traders are expecting a huge rise in global stock markets and Bitcoin prices. Also, in the case of Bitcoin, the expectation is increasing even more since this is the post halving season. Traders ALWAYS come first on MCS. Thank you. MCS Website:https://mycoinstory.com/ MCS Official Twitter (EN):https://twitter.com/mycoinstory_mcs MCS Official Facebook:https://www.facebook.com/MyCoinStory.official MCS Telegram Chat (EN):https://t.me/mycoinstory_EN
For Trading September 24TH NASDAQ WORST PERFORMER, AGAIN! BATTERY DAY is a DUD ABSOLUTE LUNACY Today’s market started off on the upside hitting the high of the day by 9:45 and started to fail. By 10:30 we had moved below unchanged and spent the next 3 hours going sideways to down, and then the real selling began, taking the DJIA to below last weeks low and after a minor rally moved down to close -525.05 (1.9%), NASDAQ -330.65 (3.02%), S&P 500 -78.65 (2.07%), the Russell -45.59 (3.04%) and the DJ Transports -119.44 (1.06%). Volume on the NYSE was roughly 7:1 down, close to climactic, but not quite, and the A/D was 7.8:1 on NYSE and 5:1 on NASDAQ. Housing price index was unchanged @ +1% as expected and mortgage apps. Increased 6.8% following a -2.5% last week. Covid-19 numbers are on the rise again with France the big winner (loser?) on number of new cases and deaths. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! TUESDAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/dJGunoIqLZU v With my guest: David Weinstein on Bio-Hacking !! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/jd4FWkDRLig SECTORS: The lunacy of this market knows no bounds. A company added a “EV Charger” business and it rallies from a prior close of $1.05 to a high of $46.67 and finishes the day @ $14.00 +1233%. This is the same kind of activity that occurred in 1999 when all you had to do was add “.com” to the company name and settle back to watch the fireworks. In reality, SPI Energy (SPI) is a company that had a high of $1,800 at the start of 2016. That may seem pretty extreme for a stock that closed $1.05 before the news, but it actually “reverse split” twice, 1:10 in 2017 and 2018. So, if you owned 100 shares in early 2017 at $20, you’d first go to 10 shares, and then again in 2018 down to 1 share. So, 100 @ $20, or $2000 worth of stock, you’d now have 1 share worth $14.00 at the close today. Talk about destruction of equity! No as bad as some, but not a great return. Caveat Emptor!...in spades. New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were LOWER with CCL -.28, RCL -1.57, NCLH -.28, AAL -.37, DAL -.87, LUV -.53, UAL -.95, HA -.41, ALK -1.17, and XTN $57.50 -.85 (1.46%). FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN -2.59, BGS -.48, FLO -.23, CPB -.48, CAG -1.29, MDLZ -1.27, KHC -.48, CALM -.01, JJSF +1.40, SAFM -2.89, HRL -.21, SJM -1.67, PPC -.04, KR -.54, and PBJ $31.68 -.63 (1.96%). BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -.56, ABBV -1.42, REGN -6.32, ISRG -8.61, GILD -.65, MYL -.42, TEVA -.16, VRTX -3.76, BHC -.29, INCY -.96, ICPT -1.64, LABU -5.39, and IBB $132.10 -1.68 (1.25%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.65, CGC -1.43, CRON-.24, GWPH -.85, ACB -2.11 (28%), NBEV -.12, CURLF -.05, KERN -.35, and MJ $10.37 -.70 (6.32%). DEFENSE was LOWER with LMT -5.18, GD -3.25, TXT -.80, NOC -2.85, BWXT -1.11, TDY -7.71, RTX -1.79, and ITA $156.70 -4.14 (2.57%). RETAIL: was LOWER with M -.13, JWN -.72, KSS -.71, DDS -1.39, WMT -2.80, TGT -3.88, TJX -1.36, RL -3.03, UAA +.33, LULU -2.60, TPR +.03, CPRI -.50, and XRT $49.28 -1.34 (2.65%). MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were LOWER with GOOGL -56.82, AMZN -155.99, AAPL -6.21 FB -8.00, NFLX -22.37, NVDA -25.01, TSLA -56.40, BABA -3.39, BIDU -1.11, CMG +23.13, CRM -13.28, BA -6.45, CAT -3.07, DIS -4.21, XLK 109.90 -4.32 (3.79%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -4.22, JPM -1.77, BAC -.72, MS -1.21, C -1.52, PNC -2.86, AIG -.88, TRV -1.76, AXP -2.88, V -5.71, and XLF $23.20 -.53 (2.23%). OIL, $39.93 +.13, Oil was higher all day. I am looking for about another $1.00 or so before I would consider selling it for a correction. The stocks were lower with XLE $30.21 – 1.43 (4.52%). GOLD $1,868.40 -39.20, opened LOWER but and gave up most of the recent gains and finished well off the low but substantially lower. I have closed out the NEM calls at a loss. I will take another look after I’ve seen some sideways action. BITCOIN: closed $10,280 -215. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $10.74 -.53 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
I consider myself to be an informed member of the XRP community. I have a Twitter feed of all the prominent personalities/researchers to keep tabs on the news. I watch the metrics on utility-scan.com daily and even wrote a calculator to help understand what ODL is doing over time. I regularly check in on global metrics like volume, wallet openings, and the distribution of XRP within wallets. Up until recently, if you asked me to explain how XRP is distributed out to the public, I would point you to two resources. The first is an article on XRPArcade explaining how Jed McCaleb's XRP sales are structured (not the topic of this post). The other place would be the XRP Markets Reports provided quarterly by Ripple. There you would understand that for the past year Ripple has increasingly slowed the sales of XRP and only is selling in small amounts to facilitate liquidity in markets. Based on this data, I've seen discussions on /cryptocurrency and elsewhere claiming that XRP's inflation rate is lower than Bitcoins and is near 0. Based on publicly provided data I've realized that this is not the case. XRP's distribution rate is very different than the impression painted by the XRP Markets Reports. TLDR; Ripple is trying to paint a narrative that very little XRP is entering the market. In reality sales of XRP are very low, but XRP entering circulation remains much higher from an inflationary perspective and that rate has remained relatively unchanged from 2016 onward. Before I dive into the data, I'd like to take a brief pause and state that in no way am I writing this to be FUD. Clear and accurate data is extremely important to me. Much of the recent community conversation has revolved around hopium and dot connecting that is unverified. It's a public ledger, but most people don't take the time to track the numbers. I'm hoping to shed more light on these important factors since there is no doubt that XRP's rate of distribution can effect the price. Ok, soapbox over. I first was clued in that something was off while listening to a SamIAm video here. Basically Sam is calling out Ripple over their Q1 Markets Report because they didn't mention around $18 million of XRP paid to MoneyGram. Now technically this isn't a sale of XRP, but it's convenient to leave out and we would only know that this was happening because the SEC forced MoneyGram to report it on their Quarterly Investor Report. Next I was scratching my head over a data discrepancy. Tether flipped XRP on LiveCoinWatch weeks before the other tracking sites like CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap. Upon closer inspection I realized that all these sites retrieve the XRP circulating supply from a single API call and LiveCoinWatch had coded their site incorrectly. They were pulling the XRP numbers from last year. The API is here and anyone can checkout the data: https://data.ripple.com/v2/network/xrp_distribution. I believe that there is a companion private API Ripple uses to power their pie chart here: https://ripple.com/xrp/market-performance. Notice that the market performance (at the time of this posting) is for May 17th while the public API only goes to April. I don't know why Ripple hasn't updated the public API in a month. Since the public API has a history of postings you can go back and track the "distributed" tag all the way back to the middle of 2016. Here's what I found.
XRP Released into Circulation
Yearly Inflationary Rate
2016 (starts mid year)
2020 (May 1st)
2020 End (at current rate)
The 2016 data starts halfway through the year, so you can make an educated backfill guess for that year's number as well. Ripple has been distributing between 2 and 2.6 billion XRP a year with 2017 being a the high watermark. Interestingly the number distributed in 2019 is not that much different in spite of Ripple touting significantly reduced sales for almost the whole year. So lets talk about the term "XRP Distributed" versus "XRP Sales" obviously Ripple is providing the data for both stats, but they only talk about sales in the markets reports. Distribution is a much wider term. It can include things like "Business Development" like MoneyGram discussed above. It could be compensation incentives given to Ripple employees. Xpring is known to fund investments using XRP. All of these items aren't reported because they are not sales. Even with some generous guesses to the above categories, I have no idea what Ripple is really doing with the XRP in 2020 if they're not selling it. Even factoring in about 90 million XRP given to MoneyGram, there's still a significant amount distributed and I would love some opinions on what they think Ripple is doing with this XRP. Some takeaways for me:
While Ripple supplies both sets of data, they obviously want us to believe that XRP is entering the broader market at a much slower rate than reality.
Low sales numbers reinforce that notion, however an inflationary average of 5% isn't as sexy.
Ripple is doing lots with XRP that it doesn't consider a 'sale.' This gap will probably only widen with Ripple provided loans on the horizon.
At the current rate of distribution, Ripple doesn't need to dip into its escrow for another 2-3 years.
Somebody (or somebodies) is receiving large amounts of XRP that they aren't paying for. Ripple, if you're reading this, sign me up for that program please!
For Trading JULY 8th JOLTs 5.4 vs. 5 Million NVAX gets $1.6B from BARDA Today’s market got off to a very soft start in the DJIA but not so much in the NASDAQ and S&P-500, with the DJIA starting off -240 and managing a rally only as far as -125 before spending several hours going sideways until the last hour of trading when the NASDAQ and S&P ran out of steam and fell below the close and the selloff resumed. It’s never a good thing when and overbought index makes a new all-time high and then closes down and on the lows. The DJIA was -396.85 (1.51%), NASDAQ -89.76 (.86%), S&P 500 -34.30 (1.08%), the Russell -26.89 (1.86%) and the DJ Transports -108 (1.1%). The internals were 3:1 down on NYSE and 2.5:1 on NASDAQ with volume on the NYSE 2:1 down also. The DJIA was 28 down and only 2 up with WMT the big gainer +55 DP’s and on the downside, BA-62, GS -55, and UNH -43DP’s. Even with the good JOLTs number, this market is just over-extended and tired. The stat I mentioned in tonight’s video about the S&P is very telling, I think, with the S&P only 2% off its high, the median S&P stock is down 11%. This market has simply gotten too narrow and it will correct. We sold half of the remaining NEM 7/17 $60’s bought @ 1.55 and added to last Friday @ $1.30 for an average of $1.47 triggered a 100% Up Rule sale at $2.94, and today’s sale was @ $3.20. They closed today $3.20. We also own a position in SLV 8/21 17 calls @ $ .74, and they closed $ .75, and we also added a spread using the NEM 8/65 / 70 calls at a $1.30 debit. Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/5afUNy48sFI Our Discord Forum link is on the video description.. SECTORS: The FAANG names all finished near the lows, several like MSFT coming off a new all-time high and closing down on the day. Not a good sign if they follow-thru to the downside tomorrow. Also having trouble was CCL, who has had to cancel several cruises for Q4 and Q1 2021. It closed $14.57 -1.04 (6.7%). Add to that, the UAL report that it is giving warnings that it will be laying off “10’2 of thousands of employees.” UAL finished $32.55 -2.66 (7.55%). These two companies do not operate in a vacuum, so both groups are in jeopardy, again. Novavax (NVAX) got a $1.6billion grant from BARDA (Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority) to help it along in it’s search for a workable vaccine. The stock, up from $8 as late as the end of February had worked its way up to $85 last month and opened today $104 and traded as high as $111.77 and finished $104.56 +25.12 (31.63%). Don’t get too crazy with this one, this is not its first rodeo. In 2015 it was trading $300 before it had a failure on a different vaccine and the stock fell to $80 before a rally and then in the week of 9/16/2016 it fell further from $169.80 to $23.20 and then on to the adjusted (1:20 reverse) low around $4.00. We’ll hope for a better outcome this time around. Walmart was the big winner on a RECODE that said they are ready to launch Walmart +, to compete with Amazon Prime for same day grocery delivery and next day for other products. Its move today added 55 DP’s to the averages. I don’t think it’s a big deal since for the same money, with Prime you get streaming too. And the margins on groceries are razor thin. FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was MIXED with TSN -.67, BGS +.70, FLO -.03, CPB -.11, CAG +.54, MDLZ -.22, KHC +.22, CALM +.03, JJSF -1.43, SAFM +.54, HRL -.14, SJM +.18, PPC -.34, KR -.03, and PBJ $31.56 +.06 (.19%). BIOPHARMA was MIXED with BIIB - -1.72, ABBV +.72, REGN +14.50, ISRG -9.30, GILD -.13, MYL -.43, TEVA -.29, VRTX +8.35, BHC -.59, INCY +.86, ICPT -.74, LABU +3.36, and IBB $140.15 +.71 (.51%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.13, CGC -.40, CRON -.19, GWPH +2.93, ACB +.17, CURLF -.07, KERN -.62 and MJ $13.08 -.01 (.08%). DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -8.59, GD -3.29, TXT -1.73, NOC -7.89, BWXT -1.78, TDY – 7.84, RTX -2.12 and ITA $160.32 -6.10 (3.67%). RETAIL: was LOWER with M +.03, JWN -.58, KSS -.72, DDS -.88, WMT +9.11 (7.66%), TGT -1.40, TJX -1.84, RL -2.49, UAA -.41, LULU -6.66, TPR -.51, CPRI -.18 and XRT $43.78 -.43 (.97%). FAANG and Big Cap: were MIXED with GOOGL -7.40, AMZN -44.69, AAPL +1.06, FB -.91, NFLX +.69, NVDA +3.06, TSLA +9.42, BABA -2.60, BIDU -4.54, CMG -10.92, CAT -2.03, BA -8.57, DIS -.53 and XLK $106.34 -.77 (.72%). FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS – 7.91, JPM2.52, BAC -.63, MS -1.32, C -1.53, PNC -3.15, AIG -1.36, TRV -2.45, AXP -3.48, V -3.13, and XLF $22.93 -.48 (2.05%). OIL, $40.62 -.01. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00. We needed a close over the previous high close of $40.83 and while we were there, we sold off to close below that number. The stocks were higher with XLE $36.26 -1.19 (3.18%). GOLD $1,809.80 +16.40. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high OF $1807.70 Last night I said “we’ve moved $50 since the low on Friday and while the trend and momentum are positive, we may have to test 1790 to consolidate our gains.” Unfortunately, we pulled back to 1,767 instead. We rallied a bit and finished only slightly better. We bought back the 3rd and final lot of NEM @ $58.86. And, we also added a half position in NEM 7/17 60 calls @ $1.55, and additional 50% @ $1.30 on Friday. We sold half on the 100% Up Rule @ $2.94 and half of what was left today @ $3.20, we closed $3.20 + .80 today. BITCOIN: closed $9,290 -65. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges and today was a good start to move higher. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $9.76 - .19 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
I applied price discovery algorithms to 5 Min OHLCV data from Bitmex and CME contracts and Bitstamp, Coinbase, HitBTC, Kraken, Poloniex, Binance, and OkEx BTCUSD/BTCUSDT markets from March 2016 to May 2020. Some exciting results I got was:
Before the 2017/18 bull run, Bitfinex dominated the price discovery process. They started the run. But as the price increased, trades on other exchanges, Binance and Bitstamp played a more dominant role in leading the price up.
Since then, CME Contracts and Bitmex contracts have had an increasing role in price discovery. Today Bitmex and CME Contracts play the most substantial role in determining the direction of Bitcoin price.
In 2020, market dominance by Bitmex has been negatively correlated with price. Dominance by Bitfinex, Huobi and OkCoin has had high positive correlation with price.
Price discovery is the overall process of setting the price of an asset. Price discovery algorithms identify the leader exchanges whose traders define the price. Two approaches are most famous for use in Price Discovery. Gonzalo and Granger (1995) and Hasbrouck (1995). But they assume random walk, and a common efficient price. I do not feel comfortable assuming random walk and common efficient price in Bitcoin Markets. So I used this little know method by De Blasis (2019) for this analysis. This work assumes that "the fastest price to reflect new information releases a price signal to the other slower price series." I thought this was valid in our market. It uses Markov Chains to measure Price Discovery. Without going into the mathematical details the summary steps used was:
Data is first grouped into a daily interval. Then inside each daily interval's 5-minute candles, the change in prices between the current time t and previous time t-1 is calculated. The difference across the same time t across all exchanges in a given day is juxtaposed to create an initial matrix.
The initial matrix is used to create a Transition Matrix, which measures the probability of price changing to something else at time t+1 for its state at t.
Then other Markov Chain based algorithms are used to measure the influence an exchange at time t had over all other exchanges' price movement at time t+1 individually.
Reduction and normalization is done to this data. In the end, each exchange receives a single number that sums to 1 for a given day.
De Blasis (2019) names this number Price Leadership Share (PLS). High PLS indicates a large role in price discovery. As the sum of the numbers is 1, they can be looked at as a percentage contribution. I recommend reading the original paper if you are interested to know more about the mathematical detail.
Andersen (2000) argues that 5 Minute window provides the best trade-off between getting enough data and avoiding noise. In one of the first work on Bitcoin's Price Discovery, Brandvold et al. 2015 had used 5M window. So I obtained 5M OHLCV data using the following sources:
Poloniex, Bitfinex, Binance and HitBTC: Exchange's API through CCXT.
CME: Okay, this was was supposed to be tricky and expensive. I broke a TOS and scraped the data for free, removing the expensive part from the equation. I will not go into detail about where I scraped this data.
Futures data are different from other data because multiple futures contract trades at the same time. I formed a single data from the multiple time series by selecting the nearest contract until it was three days from expiration. I used the next contract when the contract was three days from expiration. This approach was advocated by Booth et al ( 1999 )
I can't embed the chart on reddit so open this https://warproxxx.github.io/static/price_discovery.html In the figure above, each colored line shows the total influence the exchange had towards the discovery of Bitcoin Price on that day. Its axis is on the left. The black line shows a moving average of the bitcoin price at the close in Bitfinex for comparison. The chart was created by plotting the EMA of price and dominance with a smoothing factor of 0.1. This was done to eliminate the noise. Let's start looking from the beginning. We start with a slight Bitfinex dominance at the start. When the price starts going up, Bitfinex's influence does too. This was the time large Tether printing was attributed to the rise of price by many individuals. But Bitfinex's influence wanes down as the price starts rising (remember that the chart is an exponential moving average. Its a lagging indicator). Afterward, exchanges like Binance and Bitstamp increase their role, and there isn't any single leader in the run. So although Bitfinex may have been responsible for the initial pump trades on other exchanges were responsible for the later rally. CME contracts were added to our analysis in February 2018. Initially, they don't have much influence. On a similar work Alexandar and Heck (2019) noted that initially CBOE contracts had more influence. CBOE later delisted Bitcoin futures so I couldn't get that data. Overall, Bitmex and CME contracts have been averaging around 50% of the role in price discovery. To make the dominance clear, look at this chart where I add Bitmex Futures and Perp contract's dominance figure to create a single dominance index. There bitmex leads 936 of the total 1334 days (Bitfinex leads 298 days and coinbase and binance get 64 and 6 days). That is a lot. One possible reason for this might be Bitmex's low trading fee. Bitmex has a very generous -0.025% maker fee and price discovery tend to occur primarily in the market with smaller trading costs (Booth et al, 1999). It may also be because our market is mature. In mature markets, futures lead the price discovery.
Table 1: Days Lead
Out of 1334 days in the analysis, Bitmex futures leads the discovery in 571 days or nearly 43% of the duration. Bitfinex leads for 501 days. Bitfinex's high number is due to its extreme dominance in the early days.
Table 2: Correlation between the close price and Exchange's dominance index
Binance, Huobi, CME, and OkCoin had the most significant correlation with the close price. Bitmex, Coinbase, Bitfinex, and Bitstamp's dominance were negatively correlated. This was very interesting. To know more, I captured a yearwise correlation.
Table 3: Yearwise Correlation between the close price and Exchange's dominance index Price movement is pretty complicated. If one factor, like a dominant exchange, could explain it, everyone would be making money trading. With this disclaimer out of the way, let us try to make some conclusions. This year Bitfinex, Huobi, and OkEx, Tether based exchanges, discovery power have shown a high correlation with the close price. This means that when the traders there become successful, price rises. When the traders there are failing, Bitmex traders dominate and then the price is falling. I found this interesting as I have been seeing the OkEx whale who has been preceding price rises in this sub. I leave the interpretation of other past years to the reader.
My analysis does not include market data for other derivative exchanges like Huobi, OkEx, Binance, and Deribit. So, all future market's influence may be going to Bitmex. I did not add their data because they started having an impact recently. A more fair assessment may be to conclude this as the new power of derivative markets instead of attributing it as the power of Bitmex. But Bitmex has dominated futures volume most of the time (until recently). And they brought the concept of perpetual swaps.
There is a lot in this data. If you are making a trading algo think there is some edge here. Someday I will backtest some trading logic based on this data. Then I will have more info and might write more. But, this analysis was enough for to shift my focus from a Bitfinex based trading algorithm to a Bitmex based one. It has been giving me good results. If you have any good ideas that you want me to write about or discuss further please comment. If there is enough interest in this measurement, I can setup a live interface that provides the live value.
2020-01: "The adoption rates are continuing to be quite steady, and adoption rates heavily correlate to the price, so therefore, unless for some reason people just simply stop continuing to adopt Bitcoin, we should see$200,000per Bitcoin by 1st January 2020 at the latest.", Fran Strajnar, CEO of cryptocurrency research firm Brave New Coin, 8-May-2019, https://www.inverse.com/article/44619-bitcoin-price-fran-strajnar
Special thanks to Fran Strajnar and Dumpie Lee for their delusional coin shilling idiotic predictions, and extra special thanks to Redditor u/diydude2 for going way, way, way beyond the call of duty and continuing to make the dumbest and most delusional bullshit coin shill predictions the world has ever seen. Anyway, enough with those delusional coin shilling idiotic predictions. What does the near future hold ? Here's the coming Bitcoin Price predictions for May-2020:
2020-05: "Getting some questions about why in previous halvings (November 2012 and July 2016) it took well over a year for the market to start surging.. Well, it didn't .. look for yourself: in the chart the halving is when blue turns to red: the market immediately rises after a halving 🚀", PlanB u/100trillionUSD, Coin Shill, 1:54 pm - 3 Dec 2019, https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1201983119387217925
For Trading April 3rd Oil Recovery Trading the Range Jobless Claims Double Today was pretty constructive in that we opened lower with the futures and of course the blockbuster news of Mr. Trumps tweet (which I find not believable) about and Oil deal between Russia and the Saudi’s, that sent us up to the high of the day +534, before we has some sideways action until around 1:15 when we started to sell-off and headed back to down on the day to -90 before we rallied and finished +469.93 (2.24%), NASDAQ +126.73 (1.72%), S&P 500 +56.40 (2.28%), the Russell +13.81 (1.29%) and the DJ Transports +93.13 (1.27%). There was plenty of news to start the day with Initial Jobless claims that were double the prior number at an astounding 6.6million. Unfortunately, the number next month will be higher. Tomorrow, we have the monthly employment number for March as well as the ISM non-manufacturing pre-open. I regarded today’s market action as very constructive. The lower open and then rally and a second round-trip to a close near the highs was impressive. While there is still plenty of work to be done, plenty of bad news on the economy and COVID-19 to come, we seem to be building some underlying support. Market internals were positive but unimpressive with gains outnumbering losers by 1.4:1 on both NYSE and NASDAQ. Volume was also lower that I would have liked to have seen. On the DJIA there were 25 gainers to 5 losers with BA -50, UTX -36, and WBA-18DPs, while the gainers were led by CVX +50, PG and CAT +36 and MMM+32 DPs. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 800 members. SECTORS: Walgreen reported earnings today and although they had better than expected numbers, they gave less than stellar guidance and the stock fell to a lower low than the March bottom and made a new low close since 2013. WBA fell to $39.41 and closed $40.32 -2.71 (6.3%). We used the decline to buy some CVS calls, which has been consolidating and has outperformed its competitor. Shopify suspended its guidance and the stock, another darling that was priced for perfection got slammed. The stock, up from $20 in 2016 topped out over $593 in February had fallen to 303 last month but climbed back to $470 last week fell to $334.55 before closing 346.30 -38.37 (9.97%). And last, the Disaster Du Jour was Luckin Coffee (LK), the Chinese Starbucks, sort of. The stock spent 7 months between $15 and $25 before taking off on a run from $18 to over $50 late last year. It fell back to $28 but had traded up to $43 last month before starting down and closing just above $26 yesterday. Unfortunately, the COO was found to have basically fabricated all of the results since Q2. Muddy Waters wrote up the company on 1/31 saying it had “evolved into a fraud.” The stock gapped down to open $4.92, rallied back to $10.58 buy gave up the gains and finished $6.40 -19.80 (75.57%). Clearly a disaster on any day. BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB +11.20, ABBV +1.08, REGN +1.35, ISRG +8.74, MYL -.23, TEVA -.35, VRTX +16.68 (7.4%), BHC M+.10, INCY +4.32 (5.82%), ICPT +.89, LABU +1.98(10.42%) and IBB $108.69 +4.90 (4.72%). CANNABIS: This group was MIXED with TLRY +.25, CGC +.29, CRON +.14, GWPH -.50, ACB +.04, PYX -.37 (13.26%), NBEV -.04, CURLF +.08, KERN +.04 and MJ $10.77 +.21 (1.99%). DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +14.98 (4.43%), RTN -3.93, GD +.35, TXT +.07, UTX -5.37 (5.88%), NPOC +7.30, BWXT +2.24, TDY +14.50 (5.23%) and ITA $136.94 +.47 (.34%). RETAIL: was LOWER with M +.01, JWN -.13, KSS -1.12 (8.66%), DDS -2.29 (8.20%), JCP -.02, WMT +4.36 (3.82%), TGT -.97, TJX -.77, RL +.28, UAA -.42 (5.08%), LULU +2.08, TPR +.04, CPRI -.69, and XRT $27.64 -.39 (1.39%). FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +14.90, AMZN +8.80, AAPL +2.99, FB -1.80, NFLX +3.92, NVDA +11.06, IBM +4.31, TSLA +53.44, BABA +.89, BIDU +1.12, BA -6.32, CAT +5.06, DIS +1.18 and XLK $78.33 +1.79 (2.34%). FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +5.21, JPM +3.02, BAC +.68, MS +2.14, C +.50, PNC +3.38, AIG -.20, TRV +3.79, AXP -1.14, and XLF $20.04 +.49 (2.51%). OIL, $25.32 +5.01. The explosive move in Oil today was spurred on by an early morning tweet from Mr. Trump claiming that Russia and the Saudi’s were close to an agreement. My first thought was BS, but the market held and finished strong. My only warning is that we have had several of these spikes that have failed with news that we knew was real. The stocks were stronger across the board with CVX the big winner +7.56 (11.03%) and added 50 DPs. XOM +3.12 (8.13%), OXY +2.05 (19%), OAS +.06, NBL +.47 (8%), MRO +.33, MPC +.58, RIG +.02, APA +.68 (16.92%), BP +1.80 (7.38%) and XLE $30.15 +2.53 (9.16%). METALS, GOLD: $1,637.70 +46.30. After the recent gains, Gold has failed to break through the highs around $1700 and have fallen back. Today’s rebound is of little technical value. I will reassess and look for a new entry point. BITCOIN: closed $6,865 +655. After we traded in another short-range day yesterday we had a range of over $1000 today, closing about midrange. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $7.72 +1.22 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
Bitcoin Price. bitcoinprice.org provides fast loading real time bitcoin price charts and historical bitcoin charts with advanced technical indicators and chart drawing tools. Bitcoin is open-source; its design is public, nobody owns or controls Bitcoin. Bitcoins are traded in many different exchanges around the world and exchanged for many different national currencies as well as other ... Bitcoin history for 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019. Bitcoin price chart since 2009 to 2019. The historical data and rates of BTC ... Bitcoin Price (BTC). Price chart, trade volume, market cap, and more. Discover new cryptocurrencies to add to your portfolio. Skip to content. Prices. Products. Company. Earn crypto. Get $171+ Sign in. Get started. Price charts Bitcoin price. Bitcoin price (BTC) Add to Watchlist $ 13,070.01 +0.56%. 1h. 24h. 1w. 1m. 1y. all. $0.0000 January 1 12:00 AM. 10:56 AM 3:06 PM 7:17 PM 11:27 PM 3:38 AM ... 2016: $693 (+61%) 2015: $430 (+34%) 2014: $320 (-58%) 2013: $754: Biggest Moments in Bitcoin’s Price History. There have been a few defining moments for the price of Bitcoin, here are the biggest price movements: June 2019 Bull Rally. Following the dump in November 2018, Bitcoin spent several months slowly creeping up to the $8,000 mark. Then, in the month of June alone, Bitcoin rallied to ... Bitcoin Price in 2016. The price of Bitcoin in USD is reported by Coindesk. All prices on this page are nominal (i.e., they are not indexed to inflation). For price history since Bitcoin was first traded on exchanges in 2010, click here. Bitcoin Price Chart, 2016 This graph shows the conversion rate of 1 Bitcoin to 1 USD at the first of each month. Bitcoin Price in 2016 ($) Bitcoin Price Table ...
BITCOIN 2016 “SOLD EVERYTHING” HISTORICAL BTC HALVING PRICE DATA SUGGESTS NEW ATH
Bitcoin price has many different support areas leaving room for BTC to consolidate for next move up. As always, it is a battle of the bulls vs. bears. With targets for btc price to $12k and down ... bitcoin exact 2016 repeat incoming?!! proof we are overdue!! must see evidence - only moments away PROOF WE ARE OVERDUE!! MUST SEE EVIDENCE - ONLY MOMENTS AWAY - Duration: 18:32. The general premise of technical analysis videos on Crypto Capital Venture is that although Bitcoin price moves in a very volatile way, there is much opportunity in being prepared for upside and ... bitcoin price chart since 2009 Bitcoin history – Price 2009 to 2018, Charts, Data – Bitcoin View Bitcoin's price since its inception in 2009 and all the way up to today. In this Bitcoin Price charts report, lets refer to this indicator reported in the Bitcoin Golden Ratio report page at medium.com. With this 2 MA graphs, we c...